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What do the Cavaliers do Next?
2010-07-26
Nobody in Cleveland thought it could possibly come to this. Not after seven years as a Cavalier and a lifetime spent in Ohio. Not after he revealed prior to free agency that the Cavaliers had an edge in landing him. Surely not after all the heartbreaking moments and figures in Cleveland sports history that require no explanation: The Drive, The Fumble, The Shot, Jose Mesa, Art Modell. Nobody expected LeBron James to leave Cleveland in the most heartbreaking, callous way imaginable. Instead, a city and franchise is left in disarray as it tries to make sense of it all. There is no doubt that it will be a difficult rebuilding job.
It’s no understatement to say that the Cleveland Cavaliers were totally constructed around LeBron James, on and off the court. Everything went through him and he was the fulcrum of everything they accomplished. This season, the two-time MVP led the team in points, assists, blocks, and steals, and was a close second in rebounds. Furthermore, every acquisition was made with the intent of appeasing James. Instead of building a roster around young talent and draft picks, they focused on more experienced players with higher price tags because they knew that they had to win championships with James.
Assessing a plan of action going forward for the Cavaliers is difficult. It’s pretty hard to replace 29.7 points, 8.6 assists, and 7.3 rebounds per game. Fortunately for the Cavaliers, they have money to spend from what would have gone to James’ contract. Even then, there are some difficulties. Cleveland isn’t one of the more attractive places for a free agent. Not only is it a small market, the winters are brutal, and the economic region is depressed. The conundrum can be looked at as such: if Chris Bosh didn’t want to go there and play with James, who would want to go there without him?
A new wrinkle to the attractiveness (or lack thereof) of Cleveland is owner Dan Gilbert. Upon James’ dismissal, he wrote a public letter to the fans excoriating James and slandering his character. It leaves many questions about the way in which Gilbert operates the franchise and whether any superstar would want to place himself under that type of risk if things didn’t go well.
Another unfortunate consequence of the timing of James’ decision is that it seems to have come too late for Cleveland to pursue any big name free agents. The Cavaliers couldn’t reach out to anybody because James forced their hand and they had to leave the money available for him in case he decided to return. The domino effect of James’ decision has already depleted many of the role player free agents as well and there just isn’t an abundance of talent left on the market. Perhaps the biggest decision for Cleveland to make in free agency is whether or not to keep Shaquille O’Neal, who can still occasionally produce but slows the game down significantly and is an injury risk. And NBA betting have had their fill of Shaq.
That’s not to say the Cavaliers are without assets though, perhaps the greatest of which is Byron Scott, who might not have signed with the team had he known James would leave. Scott has a proven pedigree as a player and coach, especially with the New Orleans Hornets.
As far as player personnel, Mo Williams is a very valuable cog. He blossomed as a point guard last year, occasionally making clutch plays down the stretch and showing great shooting ability. Antawn Jamison was brought in for James and was thought to be a short-term player. However, he is still under contract and the Cavs are hoping he still has mileage left at 34 years of age. Both these players averaged 15.8 points a game last year and it will be interesting to see how well they play without James and if either one is capable of becoming the leader the team needs.
The Cavs best young player is likely JJ Hickson, who showed signs of potential greatness last year. His development was likely stunted by the franchise’s choice to do everything to win then, which meant leaning on veteran players. Now that championships are out of the question, perhaps Hickson will be given more of a chance to show what he can do in an increased role. Other teams around the league certainly think highly of him, as is indicated by the Phoenix Suns’ refusal to trade Amare Stoudemire at last season’s trade deadline when Cleveland declined to include Hickson.
The Cavaliers would be wise to take a long-term approach and follow a model like that of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have gone from one of the worst teams in the NBA to a playoff squad that many think will eventually challenge for a title. To do that, the Cavs need to acquire younger players to surround Hickson with, as well as build through the draft.
As far as the Cavs prospects for the 2010-2011 season, it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs. However, the Eastern Conference has been very top-heavy in recent years with a big fall-off after the first four or five teams. Considering this, their best-case scenario is challenging for a playoff spot and perhaps getting in as the seven or eight seed, where they just might play the Miami Heat and a certain former player.
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NBA: Thursday NBA Betting Action2010-02-09It happens to most quality teams, nonetheless Miami and San Antonio drew the short straws having to play nationally televised cable games on the road after playing the night before away from home. The Heat were outscored by five points in the final 12 minutes at Boston, which proved to be the losing margin for them in a 107-102 defeat. The Spurs opened their annual Rodeo Trip with a 115-113 thriller in Sacramento. Both have little time to recoup at noted difficult places to win on Thursday night. According to Sportsbook.com, Miami is a 9.5-point dog at Cleveland, while San Antonio is favored at Portland by 2.
Wade vs James –Round 3
Miami (24-25 SU & ATS) has lost its first two games this season to Cleveland, both at home and travels to Quicken Loans Arena for the first time this campaign. The Cavaliers (39-11, 26-23-1 ATS) have the superior team as the records prove, but the matchup, though not head-to-head, of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James brings out the best of both players and teams. In the prior contests, each player has scored over 30 points, with Wade holding a slight edge 68 to 66 in total points scored.
Cleveland is a decided favorite at 9.5-points with a total of 187.5. Miami is 5-2 off a straight up loss and in the midst of playing eight of nine away from home. “This is a tough road trip we are on. We have to focus game to game,” said Wade last night. The Heat are 2-7 and 3-6 ATS playing without rest this season, losing by an unseemly 12 points per game.
If Miami is starting to feel the heat of playing a number of games away from home, Cleveland is just scorching. The Cavaliers have won nine in a row and has covered five straight spreads, three by double digits. Since slipping past Miami four games ago, the Cavs average margin of victory has been 19 per game. Cleveland is 38-18-1 ATS off a win by double digits and has covered last five outings with a day of rest. This is the opener on TNT starting at 8:00 Eastern, with Cleveland 8-1 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine get-togethers.
Deep breath and move on
The San Antonio Spurs have not been of recent vintage this season, with a 28-19 record (23-23-1 ATS), despite having played 29 home games, the most in the NBA. With the rodeo in San Antonio, that means the Spurs head out of town and the schedule starts to balance itself. San Antonio played its first of eight consecutive road games in Sac-Town last night and escaped with a two-point victory, thanks to the exploits of backup point guard George Hill. The second year player has taken over for an injured Tony Parker, scoring 23 points and dishing out a career high nine assists, drawing the praise of his head coach.
“George is probably the most improved player in the whole league,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. “From his rookie year last year to this year he’s starting to get confident and played well at both ends of the floor. He’s going to be a really fine player for us.” The Spurs will need similar performance or better at Portland (29-22, 28-22-1 ATS) tonight since they are 4-9 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home record.
The Trailblazers have been dealing with injury issues of their own, with Greg Oden again done for the season and Brandon Roy having missed eight straight contests with strained right hamstring. Portland is 3-5 (4-4 ATS) during this stretch without Roy; however his replacement Jerryd Bayless has been better than adequate, averaging 14.6 PPG and shooting nearly 50 percent. The Blazers have not been their usual dominant selves at the Rose Garden with a 17-9 SU record and .500 against the spread. After being whipped by Utah 118-105 Wednesday, Portland is 6-1 ATS of late off a SU loss and 6-0 ATS after surrendering 100 or more points.
The Blazers have won three of last four at home against San Antonio, beating the oddsmakers number each time. The point spread has Tim Duncan’s club opening as two-point favorites, which does not correlate to rest for each team. The Spurs are 3-5 SU and ATS with zero days off, while Portland is 8-3 SU and ATS in exact same situation and 12-3 ATS dating back to last season. The tipoff will be at approximately 10:35 Eastern.
The StatFox Power Lines for these games show Cleveland by 13, Portland by 4
NBA: Denver seeks net profit against New Jersey2009-11-24The Denver Nuggets haven’t lost a regular-season home game in nearly nine months. That winning streak shouldn’t be in much danger against the New Jersey Nets. Denver looks to improve to 6-0 at the Pepsi Center on Tuesday night when it faces a Nets team that is approaching the worst start in NBA history. Sportsbook.com oddsmakers have reacted as expected, installing Denver as a 13-point favorite. Expect bettors to be backing the hosts big-time by tip-off.
Coming off a 106-99 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday, the Nuggets (9-4, 7-6 ATS) rebounded with a 112-93 victory over visiting Chicago on Saturday.
“This was a tough win for us, especially coming off a tough loss, tough loss,” point guard Chauncey Billups said after scoring 21 points. “We feel like we need to get as many games at home as we can, and the only way we can do that is try to win as many games at home as we can. There’s going to be some tough nights, but we do focus on establishing a great home court.”
Denver has gone undefeated in 15 games at the Pepsi Center since a 97-95 loss to Houston on March 9 and is 30-13 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.
The Nuggets will try to extend that home-court dominance against the Nets (0-13, 4-9 ATS), who are four losses from tying the league’s worst start shared by Miami in 1988-89 and the Clippers in 1998-99.
New Jersey, which opens a four-game western trip Tuesday, lost 98-91 to New York on Saturday.
“I’ve never been in a situation like this,” said guard Chris Douglas-Roberts, averaging 18.1 points and 5.5 rebounds. “I really can’t describe the feeling I have right now. I take every loss very hard, but this many losses without a win, I really don’t know what to feel. I don’t know where I’m at right now. Mentally, it’s tough.”
New Jersey has lost 12 in a row for the first time since a 14-game skid from Jan. 19-Feb. 20, 1990 and is 21-39 ATS in non-conference games the last few years.
The Nets got back All-Star point guard Devin Harris after he missed the previous 10 games with a strained right groin. He came off the bench and contributed 12 points and seven assists. “It’s frustrating all the way around and you can see it on guys’ faces,” Harris said. It’s also frustrating to Nets backers who are 10-22 ATS playing against teams with win percentage of 60 to 70 percent over the last three seasons.
With a chance to avoid matching the franchise’s worst start, the Nets fell to 0-5 with a 122-94 loss to the visiting Nuggets on Nov. 4. Denver trailed by one at halftime but outscored New Jersey 44-26 in the third quarter, with Billups scoring all 12 of his points in the period and Carmelo Anthony adding 11 of his 22.
Anthony, the NBA’s leading scorer at 30.5 points per game, shot 58.8 percent from the field in his last four games after hitting 36.4 percent or less in five of his previous six contests. With New Jersey lacking any offensive continuity, the Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging 20 assists or less game.
Denver guard J.R. Smith is shooting 43.7 percent, and his ability to score in bunches from long range makes him a consistent threat. Smith scored 12 of his 19 points in the fourth quarter Saturday, hitting two 3s in the period. “He’s an explosive player,” coach George Karl said. “I thought we ran a couple of plays that got him going.”
Sportsbook.com has Denver as heavy chalk at -13, with total of 203. The Nuggets are 13-3 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams, being outrebounded three or more per game and are is 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. New Jersey is 5-14 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points and is 11-2 UNDER this season.
This matchup is on the YES Network at 9:00 Eastern, with the Nuggets having won and covered five of six against the Nets.
The StatFox Power Line shows Denver by 16, meaning there is still some wiggle room in the Sportsbook.com price.
NBA: NBA All-Star Game (7:20 PM ET, TNT)2009-02-16The best players of the NBA will again take center stage for the entertainment extravaganza known as the 2009 NBA All-Star Game from Phoenix on Sunday. Sportsbook.com will be your home for betting on this annual basketball showcase, with the options including game lines, totals, and numerous prop opportunities. Find out all that is available by visiting the LIVE ODDS page.
Last season, the East defeated the West 134-128 with LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers garnering MVP honors. That was the second time in three years that he took home the trophy and with he and Kobe Bryant forming their own personal head-to-head dual, the MVP honor for ’09 figures to come down to those two and which side wins the game. We’re here to look at that prospect as well as to dig up some key handicapping information from past all-star games in order to help you if you choose to partake in this year’s proceedings. The West is a 4-1/2 point favorite with a total of 263.
James is the inarguable star for the East, but the rest of the starters include Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic, Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics, Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat and Allen Iverson of the Detroit Pistons. On the bench for the East are all-stars Rashard Lewis of the Orlando Magic, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics, Devin Harris of the New Jersey Nets, Mo Williams of the Cavaliers, Danny Granger of the Indiana Pacers and Joe Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks. Allen and Williams were named subs last week.
Iverson is the only player whose worthiness appears to be under question, so expect the rest of the East guards to receive additional playing time.
The West All-Stars starters include Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets, assuming he’s able to go with his groin injury, Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers, Amare Stoudemire of the Phoenix Suns, Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs and Yao Ming of the Houston Rockets. The bench of the West will include Tony Parker of the San Antonio Spurs, Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets, Brandon Roy of the Portland Trail Blazers, David West of the New Orleans Hornets, Dirk Nowitzki of the Dallas Mavericks, Pau Gasol of the Los Angeles Lakers and Shaquille O’Neal of the Phoenix Suns.
Coaching the East will be Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown, and the coach of the West will be Los Angeles Lakers coach Phil Jackson. The West figures to have a size advantage, with six players towering at 7-foot or more in height. If anything, the speed could be the advantage of the East. Of course, being in Phoenix, the “home court advantage” will again be favoring the West for the 6th straight season. Officially, the East hosted the ’07 game in Vegas, but the regional edge was to the West.
It is commonly believed that the balance of power in the NBA has shifted in recent years from the Western Conference to the Eastern. Boston helped validate that theory by winning the championship last season. This year, the trend seems to be continuing, with three of the league’s four elite teams leading their respective divisions in the East. As of press time, the Lakers, Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando were all within two games of one another.
In terms of head-to-head records in non-conference play this season, through action on Thursday, the East was 20-games above .500 against the West. Compare that to last season, when the West was +43 games at that same point, and two years ago when the West was +49. The East’s success in ’08-09 has been top-to-bottom too, as only five of the conference’s 15 teams were under .500 in non-conference action.
Still, even with that edge going to the East, it’s no real surprise that the West opened as the 4-1/2 point favorite. After all, it has been favored every year since 2001. Here are a few other trends that have formed in recent years in the NBA mid-season extravaganza:
* The straight up winner has taken all but one of the last eight games ATS.
* The Eastern Conference in on an all-star game run of 4-1 ATS, all as the underdog.
* The so-called “road team” has won ATS in the L7 NBA All-star games.
* OVER the total has converted in two straight games and five of the L7.
* The last five all-star game MVP’s are on rosters for the ’09 game.
So, who will win? More importantly, who should we bet on? Most often, that question can be answered by determining these two things: 1) Which roster is better? And 2) Which team will play with more cohesiveness? While it is impossible for anyone to know enough about #2 other than pure speculation, it IS possible to evaluate the first question. This can be done both from perception and quantitatively.
If you read last year’s piece I did on this same subject, I used a unique formula to determine which roster was more talented. It led me to predict a 128-126 win for the East. I’ll do the same this year.
My exercise involves taking into account the popular Hollinger Ratings on ESPN.com used for evaluating Player Efficiency (PER). I’ve estimated the minutes the starters and reserves will play and have come up with a theoretical TOTAL TEAM EFFICIENCY RATING which I use to justify a pointspread play for Sunday’s game.
- East Total PER: 5376.82
- West Total PER: 5605.46
According to the results, assuming the minutes played breakdown is somewhat near accurate, the West roster is about 4.2% better in terms of cumulative player efficiency ratings. That’s a decent sized margin for an all-star contest, much bigger than last season.
The West would also seem to be a more motivated team this year, looking to silence critics that think the East is the better conference now. Add to that the talent margin inside, and at point, I’d have to give the West the edge on the pointspread at anything less than 4-points. Prediction: West 133, East 122.
Year: Site - Score (SU/ATS, Betting Result) - MVP
2009: Phoenix - ? (?, ?) - ?
2008: New Orleans - East 134, West (-7.5, 260.5) 128; (East / East, Away-Dog-Over) - Lebron James - Cleveland
2007: Las Vegas - West (-4.5, 258) 153, East 132; (West / West, NONE-Fave-Over) - Kobe Bryant - LA Lakers
2006: Houston - East 122, West (-4.5, 257) 120; (East / East, Away-Dog-Under) - Lebron James - Cleveland
2005: Denver - East 125, West (-5.5, 263.5) 115; (East / East, Away-Dog-Under) - Allen Iverson - Philadelphia
2004: Los Angeles - West (-7.5, 255) 136, East 132; (West / East, Away-Dog-Over) - Shaquille O'Neal - LA Lakers
2003: Atlanta - West (-5, 255.5) 155, East 145; (West / West, Away-Fave-Over) - Kevin Garnett - Minnesota
2002: Philadelphia - West (-2, 252.5) 135, East 120; (West / West, Away-Fave-Over) - Kobe Bryant - LA Lakers
2001: Washington, D.C. - East 111, West (-4, 256.5) 110; (East / East, Home-Dog-Under) - Allen Iverson - Philadelphia